Rare earths aren’t rare — but their reliable flow is. Mayfair’s fragility audit reveals where exposure to REE volatility could destabilize operational sovereignty. From China’s export control maneuvers to concentrated refining chokepoints, strategic clarity is no longer optional.

Mayfair’s REE fragility model flags five global exposure fronts. These aren’t speculative — they’re active risk vectors. We don’t chase commodity forecasts. We isolate sovereignty posture under denial or pressure.

• China Export Control Thresholds: Sudden withholding events from Beijing's Ministry of Commerce trigger downstream planning shocks.
• Refining & Processing Bottlenecks: Western investments lag years behind China’s dominance in separation & purification capacity.
• Tier 2 Defense Contractors: Subcontractor-level fragility often hidden beneath prime contractor audits.
• Critical Mineral Substitution Gaps: R&D optimism has outpaced readiness — substitution plans often break under wartime conditions.
• Strategic Redundancy Failure: U.S. & allied supply chains often pursue diversification, but not true redundancy.

Most fragility audits begin too late. Ours begin before denial is visible. This briefing offers a forward-swept posture map calibrated to pressure, not press releases.